- Bridgewater Associates, the giant hedge fund with $140 billion in assets, told clients last month it believes there is a risk there will be no clear election winner. “The real uncertainty that could confront investors is if there is material concern over the legitimacy of the process to decide a winner,” Bridgewater told clients. “Given President Donald Trump’s personality, his statements about the likelihood of fraud, and the relatively untested and unclear process for reaching resolution, it is a possibility in our minds.”
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said in a July note to clients that they preferred putting on hedges that expire in December because of the prospect of delayed election results, pointing to the 2000 contest between Democrat Al Gore and George W. Bush when the fate of the race was unclear until December.
- Fear surrounding the election appears even more intense this time around. Investors are paying more for VIX futures tied to October than September than they have in the past four election cycles going back to 2004, according to Stuart Kaiser, head of equity derivatives research at UBS Group AG . This extra premium is more than double what it has been historically, UBS data shows. These derivatives cover the coming Nov. 3 election