TLDR: It’s going to come out in the near future that Twitter has been MASSIVELY underestimating their spam/bot accounts. The price is going to tank, and Elon Musk will renegotiate at a much cheaper price.
For those out of the loop on the recent events regarding Musk/twitter. Musk has put the deal “on hold” until her can verify the amount of bots/spam accounts twitter has.
Here is a timeline of tweets that paints a grim picture for Twitter:
Musk called twitter out saying they they estimated less than 5% of monthly active users are spam/bots
Musk also said that they got this statistic by sampling 100 followers of the @twitter account.
Twitter legal called Musk to complain that he violated NDA by revealing the bot sample size was 100. ??
Musk wants to “crowdsource” an answer to the bot question
So, users across Twitter are taking it upon themselves to conduct their own tests to come up with bot % estimates. And the results aren’t pretty. Keep in mind these reports are all anecdotal.
“I think between 42-69% of my new daily followers are bots. Not even joking.” Musk responds with “interesting”
Another user said “If you scroll through the followers list of Twitter for 10 seconds you’ll at least find 3 or 4 accounts appear to be scam/spam/fake/bot accounts. Now, imagine scaling that by total number of Twitter followers, which is around 62 million. Certainly more than5%.”
Musk responded with “Exactly. I have yet to see any analysis that has fake/spam/duplicates at <5%.”
That same user musk reponded to said “Guarantee is 25%+”
A user got an influx of followers and said about 50% of them were bots. Musk replied
JUST TODAY. The CEO of twitter made a Tweet thread responding to the bot allegations.
TLDR paraphrase: The process of counting bots/spam is hard and complicated. The public is incapable of getting proper estimates, But rest assured, we are providing accurate numbers to our share holders :). … trust me bro
Elon literally replied with a shit emoji
Just this week, research conducted by Sparktoro found that out of ~44,000 active Twitter those have at least tweeted a single time in the past 90 days. ~20% are possibly spam/scam/fake/bot accounts.
It’s not looking good for Twitter.
Positions. Planning on loading more 5/27s
UPDATE: new tweet reply from musk regarding the situation
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.