Even as China’s recent exercises near Taiwan highlighted Beijing’s growing ability to invade the small island nation, legislation working its way through Congress could help the United States arm Taiwan against such an attack. But there is disagreement in Taipei and in Washington about how best to fortify the island—and how much time they have to do so.
Last year, then-Indo-PACOM commander Adm. Philip Davidson said China might invade within half a decade. More recently, a former senior defense official called Davidson’s forecast too optimistic. “I am very confident that there is no real analysis behind that,” the former official told Defense One, adding an invasion or other major action is likely in 2024, when both Taiwan and the United States will hold presidential elections. Still, the most recent edition of the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military concluded that Beijing “appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan could be negotiated over the long-term and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits.”
A Center for Strategic and International Studies war game, which Defense One observed Aug. 3, found that the United States can repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but at a huge cost of military equipment and human life. During the first two weeks of a conflict that played out during the game, the United States lost an aircraft carrier, 10 destroyers, half a dozen subs, and scores of aircraft, in addition to the deaths of thousands of American troops.
The United States also quickly rolled through its anti-ship missiles in the first few days of the conflict, trying to wipe out China’s amphibious fleet and limit its ability to land troops and supplies on Taiwan. The Long Range Anti-Ship Missile made by Lockheed Martin was especially critical to the fight, but those playing the game quickly found they had run out. One participant said they would trade every U.S. ship for more missiles to cripple China’s fleet.
“It reaffirmed that we are in a real pickle with munitions, similar to the Ukraine fight, where we’ve seen seven years of Javelin production used in only three months,” said Mark Montgomery, a retired Navy rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who also participated in the wargame. “We’re in the low hundreds [on LRASMs] , which literally could be expended in the first 24 hours of combat.”