US lost all job gains made since “Great Recession,” some of these claims have to be people who will get their job back when the storm passes, but their employer doesn’t want to pay them. On the other hand, claims probably understate the problem.

by QuaintSofaChallenge

So how do we feel about these numbers? Some of these jobs are gone for good. Demand depressed even on the “re-opening,” leaving most out of work.

My impression is that most blue states stay closed for another month, which would keep this rate/unemployment claims up.

Ultimately, there are probably two rates. A “soft” unemployment rate (rate while every business is shut down) and a “hard” rate (the rate it stays at once businesses and the country re-open). What is everyone’s guess as to the hard rate relative to the soft rate?

At that point, businesses will have gone under. Hard rate matters if you still believe in fundamentals. Impacts consumer demand/confidence on re-opening. May feed into a thesis I’m developing that for as bad as the shut down is we see extended GDP decline through re-opening b/c of the underlying problems caused by the “hard” rate. Do people disagree?