Weekly Economic Index Currently Shows 4Q GDP of -11%

by SpontaneousDisorder

This new index is now being updated here, I’ll add this to the wiki. Notice how it compares to the trough of the Financial crisis.

www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/weekly-economic-index

Read this article to understand more about its construction. Its designed to show more immediate and high frequency estimate of GDP “growth”.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/monitoring-real-activity-in-real-time-the-weekly-economic-index.html

The data its based on is not subject to revision. Its a deep plunge because recessions do not usually start with a contraction in consumer spending let alone a stoppage. I suspect the numbers will get worse as long as the shut down persists because of reduced business investment and other second or third order effects that ripple through the economy.