Grab your coffee. It’s a long one.
I’ve spent an uncomfortable amount of time studying the housing market directly before and after the Great Depression. The more I research, the more I check current trends and unfortunately, they have all been mirroring each other. You’re not seeing or hearing about bank runs outside of the 3-4 named banks, but every other aspect has ALREADY happened.
The zeitgeist in the ether already feels like it is common knowledge, but information sources like government agencies and media are denying and or manipulating data from the masses.
The roaring 20’s housing ramp-to-peak looks graphically near-identical to the St Louis Fed FRED NHPI for 2006 to 2023. It peaked at 06/07, The Big Short happened, then bailouts extended what should have been the Greatest Depression. For 16 years they printed, milked, bailed out and reallocated currency to extend out to 2023 what should have happened by 2009. Even building materials prices have followed the exact trend that it did in the late 1920s. In June of 2022 we reached the same peak that 1929 saw. I surmise that from available current and historical data, we have already fallen off the cliff of the Great Depression, but because of the unique status of a global reserve Tier 1 unbacked currency, 100 years of perfecting media manipulation, and the power of the already digital dollar, most aren’t aware of it. Here’s a excerpt or abstract from one of the better studies:
‘Our indexes reveal that prices for a typical property reached a local peak in 1926.
They then fell and rebounded to reach their highest peak in 1929, coincidently
with the high point of the late 1920s stock market run-up. From then prices
fell to a new low by 1932, and they did not recover for the remainder of the
1930s. We show that high-value properties were more likely to be synchronized
with the stock market between 1929 and 1932 but that overall returns to real
estate during the 1920s and 1930s were low. When we account for the net
rental income generated in the total return, an investment in the stock market
index would have outperformed an investment in the real estate index more
than five-fold between 1920 and 1939. That is, real estate was much slower to
rebound than the stock market.’
Every day a new company announces layoffs. Every week new digits are found for Ukraine, Bankers, or some other scamdemic. The unemployment rates aren’t anywhere near accurate. Sonny Perdue was lying about Ag production when he was part of Team Trump. Every year the FED removes more key data from their calculations (see ShadowStats). Banks are rolling over on their backs. It’s like there is a silent global agreement to ignore the US and stack gold until our new Daddys (Xi and Putin) tell us what is next. And from the last video clip, they’re ready to go all in on that new-new 100 year plan.
The bad news, go watch some old YouTube videos of old folks on surviving the Great Depression. Alabama Public tv (I think) did a great series.
The good news, those stacking shiny metals, especially the ones with 47 electrons in orbitals, will do well. If on par with 1929, you’ll see median housing prices decrease by 45% first year and near the end of a decade it will be 65% off. Also, the shiny will multiply like rabbits at the Playboy Mansion when it comes to purchasing power, which is all that really matters when push comes to shove.
By all metrics from housing, GDP, unemployment, to systemic bank and finance failures, the US is the cartoon Wile E. Coyote that has ran off a cliff, feet steady kicking, he’s 1-2 seconds from looking down and realizing he’s toast.