Ok so clearly 3.5M newly unemployed was priced in… 2 month shut down is priced in… more and more beer flu priced in….
So, what the hell isn’t priced in?
- Corporate bankruptcies. Look for those to start to pick up. When they do, it will be the reverse ‘trickle down economics’ everyone talks about and is good for a few thousand down points.
- Muni and State bankruptcies. Fact is they make money via income taxes. There is none of that income stuff being made right now. And unlike the federal government they can’t just print more money…. this is going to be a problem.
- Oil. Oil is dead. No one is talking about it. The basin was already drawing on their lines to make payroll when oil was $35. It’s going to get messy… unless a very stable genius starts to actually buy huge amounts.
Predication – We go back to the lows as real data comes out about the impact beer flu… and go well below that when any of 1, 2 or 3 happen.
—— UPDATE FROM COMMENTS THAT WILL GET THIS BLACK SWAN FLYING AGAIN ——
Trump going down from the beer flu
Credit defaulting in general – student loans, auto loans, mortgages… probably in that order.
New outbreak in China… I guess this would move the market, but come on, who would be surprised.
Longer than expected shut down.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.