Technology and its rapid increase in driving efficiencies both in decreasing service costs and the need for labor and capital for manufacturing since 2008, has held inflation in check. These advances have even wiped entire industries and consequently held the line. /2
— John Tuld (@BradHuston) December 26, 2020
What's resulted is a choppy reaction where overall inflation is 1.2% yoy (CPI) but notable increases in food 3.2%, shelter 1.9% & medical care 3.7% are symptoms of a much larger problem looming, that not even tech. advances are likely to outpace with future supply shocks. /4
— John Tuld (@BradHuston) December 26, 2020
All of that demand will need to be underpinned by corresponding commodities and manufacturing increases and that seems unrealistic given a world awash in dollars much of which is sitting undisturbed in savings accounts earning little to no interest. /6
— John Tuld (@BradHuston) December 26, 2020
History has shown that price increases are tame at first & then build like tsunami wave. History has also shown that as the wave builds, no one is watching the ocean. 2021 & 2022 are going to be very interesting tests of the grand monetary experiments of the last 12 years. /7
— John Tuld (@BradHuston) December 26, 2020