1970s: Slow and depressed GDP growth, high levels of inflation, high oil prices, stocks and bonds sell off together… What does that sound like?

Inflation Is Coming to the US Economy on an 18-Wheel Flatbed

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Multiple signs of inflation in freight-related industries are at or near historical highs, in what could be an early sign that price pressures are building and ready to reverberate around the economy.

One reason inflation is potentially relevant is that it is typically rising and/or at a relatively high level going into a recession, and therefore relates to thinking about the business cycle.

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UBS WARNS THERE COULD BE AN OIL PRICE SPIKE TO $100 THAT TRIGGERS A US RECESSION

Oil prices have risen above a “sweet spot” of between $50 and $70 a barrel that encourages global growth, according to Swiss investment bank UBS.
If oil prices rise another $20 to $100 a barrel, UBS said it would dent global growth and send consumer prices higher.
UBS said prices could keep rallying for several reasons, putting the U.S. economy at risk of entering a recession.

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