2019 is going to be more destabilizing, markets are already positioned well below the FOMC dots

JPMorgan: 70% Chance of Recession by 2020; 100% Chance by 2022

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“JPM calculates recession probabilities based on regression models, which track such indicators as prime-age male participation, consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of GDP.”


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