4 weeks out from FOMC the chance Fed cuts 25bps: 70%. Chance they cut 50bps: 30%. Chance they don’t cut: 0%

www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/

If you are sure the Fed won’t cut then either:
1)They ignore these numbers, which they never do.
2)Chance of no cut explodes from the current 0% to over 50% in the next 4 weeks. Don’t know what catalyst you are seeing for that. Maybe the view inside your ass (where your head is) is quite serene?

Mark