Something is out of place. There is a massive divergence between retail sales vs. coincident indicators.

Something is out of place.

There is a massive divergence between retail sales vs. coincident indicators.

If it's all driven by fiscal stimulus….

Why aren’t we seeing a major turn in economic activity? pic.twitter.com/s82oYIDGBf

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 17, 2020

While it's not a component of this retail sales index, the auto industry would be a great example.

Car makers are extremely behind in annual production due to the pandemic.

12-trailing months production just reached its lowest level in history. pic.twitter.com/J1I48nQFYD

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 17, 2020

Credit conditions aren't so loose for people who need money most. Despite trillions of dollars of Fed stimulus & near record low benchmark rates, a record proportion of banks reported tightening lending standards on consumer credit card loans as of July 31: Fed data pic.twitter.com/06QYSyX7pM

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 19, 2020

Fed Clarida, No. 2 Official, Easy Monetary Policy & More Government Spending Needed: WSJ

A top Federal Reserve official said Monday the U.S. economy could stage a faster recovery from the coronavirus-induced recession than it did following the 2008 global financial crisis.