Something is out of place.
There is a massive divergence between retail sales vs. coincident indicators.
If it's all driven by fiscal stimulus….
Why aren’t we seeing a major turn in economic activity? pic.twitter.com/s82oYIDGBf
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 17, 2020
While it's not a component of this retail sales index, the auto industry would be a great example.
Car makers are extremely behind in annual production due to the pandemic.
12-trailing months production just reached its lowest level in history. pic.twitter.com/J1I48nQFYD
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) October 17, 2020
Credit conditions aren't so loose for people who need money most. Despite trillions of dollars of Fed stimulus & near record low benchmark rates, a record proportion of banks reported tightening lending standards on consumer credit card loans as of July 31: Fed data pic.twitter.com/06QYSyX7pM
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 19, 2020
Fed Clarida, No. 2 Official, Easy Monetary Policy & More Government Spending Needed: WSJ
A top Federal Reserve official said Monday the U.S. economy could stage a faster recovery from the coronavirus-induced recession than it did following the 2008 global financial crisis.