by Boo_Randy
2/ CDS are a bit hard to understand, so instead I'll focus on the bonds. The 2025 Credit Suisse bonds pictured below trade at 6.4%. Compare this, for example to Ukraine 2025 debt trading at 67%.
Talking about Ukrainian debt default makes sense. CS debt default – less so. pic.twitter.com/s8jyeV7nNy
— goodalexander (@goodalexander) October 3, 2022
4/ That said, Körner's Friday comments “No doubt there will be more noise in the markets and the press between now and the end of October. All I can tell you is to remain disciplined and stay as close as ever to your clients.” did not sound great for equity holders. For context –
— goodalexander (@goodalexander) October 3, 2022
6/ The drop in CS stock price has coincided with declining earnings expectations. In 2021 analysts forecast 2.00 a share of '23 eps and now only expect .64 (a 68% decline). CS price to book is similar to Deutsche Bank or 1/6 of JPM's, and 1/3 of HSBC's.
How did we get here? pic.twitter.com/1oZ2VVwB3O— goodalexander (@goodalexander) October 3, 2022
8/ The Swiss bank has a bolted-on wealth manager. Asian clients did 3x the volume for CS as Americans did in the first half – hence their focus (but also now probably a risk). Bc markets tanked, wealth fees were down 74% year on year while transactions were only down 16%. pic.twitter.com/qoXIpbVB7X
— goodalexander (@goodalexander) October 3, 2022
10/ It's probably worth pointing out here that the equities group (Prime Services) that blew up CS to the tune of $5.5 billion (over 1/2 of the bank's current market cap) servicing Bill Hwang – is separate from the derivatives group the bank plans on spinning off in Late October pic.twitter.com/haaAqv0kgb
— goodalexander (@goodalexander) October 3, 2022
Credit default swaps against Credit Suisse at GFC implosion levels pic.twitter.com/ua9xX4nZan
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) October 2, 2022
https://twitter.com/Ben__Rickert/status/1576870871033339904
Cramer: “Credit Suisse is no Lehman”
LOL
— Inverse Cramer (@CramerTracker) October 3, 2022