HONEST QUESTION:
Many expect the Fed's interest rate hikes to "break something important", forcing a policy pivot
The market expects the Fed to pivot by June, cutting rates thru the year (see chart)
So if a crisis bad enough to force a pivot is near, why are markets rallying? pic.twitter.com/l6WlcMAJmq
— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) March 30, 2023
Deep yield curve inversions tend to correlate with deeper market drawdowns.
The obvious reason is that inversions precede #recessions, which reduces #earnings, so #markets reprice lower to accommodate.
Question is really – is the #yieldcurve wrong this time? pic.twitter.com/JOAGy7KvmK— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 31, 2023
Zooming out on regional banks: pic.twitter.com/eAZMh7cZx2
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 31, 2023
Corporate insiders using this rally to sell 🤷 pic.twitter.com/nLGULsEiY1
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) March 31, 2023