Nick Gerl: ‘US Border Patrol reported 2.4 million encounters with illegal migrants last year. By far an all-time high. Nearly 3x the long-term historical average.’

1) Here are the migrant figures for FY 2023 thus far.

You can see the US is already on pace to exceed its 2022 migrant encounter figures.

And that's BEFORE Title 42 expired. Which will likely increase the immigration wave further. pic.twitter.com/7WyM7boXQq

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 12, 2023

3) Comparing Wage Growth to Inflation shows that the American worker is still struggling.

Both are coming down. But inflation is still higher on a YoY basis.

Meaning that any further deflationary impact on wage growth could be problematic. pic.twitter.com/We92KNixOJ

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 12, 2023

5) Now what will the impact of all this immigration be on the US Housing Market?

That's a complicated question.

In the short-term there doesn't seem to be a huge impact. Since most immigrants tend to live with friends/family in the US at first.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 12, 2023

7) But to be clear, we're NOT seeing this happen yet.

Rental vacancy rates in America have actually surged over the last 12 months.

Rents right now are too high for Americans. So they're also probably too high for immigrants. pic.twitter.com/vBASIR6dEm

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 12, 2023

9) But the medium term (3-4 years) is cloudier.

I think we could see a scenario where Fed turns money printer back on, and then inflation reignites.

Then rents start going up by a lot again.

Because there's way more people in US looking for housing due to immigration.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 12, 2023

🇺🇸 South Border pic.twitter.com/JFSZnF2Oeq

— Russian Market (@runews) May 12, 2023

Where are the children???
Where’s the woman????
Why is it only men????

Our border is being INVADED. THIS IS NOT A REFUGEE CRISIS!!! pic.twitter.com/vDGswE213l

— Graham Allen (@GrahamAllen) May 12, 2023