Fitch issues new statement and outlook on U.S. credit rating — Debt warning in first paragraph.

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Fitch Ratings – New York – 13 Aug 2026: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States of America’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘AA+’ with a Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

The United States’ ‘AA+’ rating is supported by its large economy, high per-capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility due to the U.S. dollar’s role as the preeminent global reserve currency. However, high fiscal deficits, a substantial interest burden, and high and rising government debt levels constrain the rating. Debt is more than double the ‘AA’ rating median. The government has not taken meaningful actions to address the large general government (GG) fiscal deficits (averaging 7% of GDP since 2022), and spending pressures will mount over the next decade due to an aging population.

Key Rating Drivers
Resilient Economic Growth: Despite higher tariffs, government spending cuts, tighter border controls and deportations, and a surge in policy uncertainties, Fitch forecasts growth to remain relatively resilient at 1.9% in 2026-2027 but down from 2.8% in 2025. The resiliency of the U.S. economy against the heightened uncertainties of tariff changes and spikes in oil prices reflect its ability to absorb shocks and highlights its flexibility. However, labor demand has weakened, and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026.

Inflationary Pressures Continue: The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation reached an annual rate of 3.7% in June, although core personal consumption expenditure was lower at 3.3%. Annual inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, and we project it will average 3.4% in 2026, above the forecast 2.9% ‘AA’ median. We expect inflation to move toward the target by year-end 2028. Tariffs have contributed to higher core goods inflation, though pass-through has been less severe than expected.

Role of U.S. Dollar Key Strength: The federal government maintains strong financing flexibility due to the U.S. dollar’s dominant share (58%) in global reserves. The dollar remains the most important currency for global trade, payments and financial markets with 89% of all over-the-counter operations denominated in U.S. dollars, multiple times higher than any other currency. The share of foreign ownership in U.S. Treasuries has held steady at close to 30% for the last five years.

READ MORE: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-united-states-of-america-at-aa-outlook-stable-13-08-2026

July: The Federal Government took in $334 billion and spent $766 billion. That's a $432 billion deficit in just one month. Don't try this at home
byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts

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