Trump's final midterm rally meets a Democratic polling surge, 54 million vote early, control of Congress hangs in the balance

Trump wrapped up his campaign Sunday in Salina, Kansas, after 30 rallies in 32 days, telling supporters, “This is it.” The problem for Republicans is that the final New York Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in every major Senate battleground, including Texas and Kansas. Nate Cohn says the Democratic leads are unusually broad, but warns that Democrats have answered pollsters at higher rates than Republicans, repeating a problem seen in 2020. Nate Silver called the numbers a “blue tsunami.” More than 53.2 million Americans had already voted by November 1, beating the entire 2022 early-vote total of 45.9 million. Reuters/Ipsos put Trump’s approval at 32% on Monday, with Democrats leading the congressional preference poll 46% to 38%. The Raw Story article asks whether Trump could flee the country, but offers speculation from a legal commentator, not evidence of preparations to leave. Tomorrow’s results will show whether the polls captured a real Republican collapse or another polling miss.

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