Are All Federal and State Officials Relying On One Model for Predicting Impact of Coronavirus?

I am NOT trying to downplay this pandemic in any way. I’m concerned about both the health and the economic impacts. However this article made me question even more some of extreme measure currently being taken by our politicians.

Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”

Then I read this article:

ICU doctor: Coronavirus frightens me. It’s severe, unpredictable and it has no cure.

We are anxious as well about how we will cope with the wave of critically ill COVID-19 patients we anticipate. According to one model, the number of expected sick patients will exceed the number of hospital beds in Hawaii between April 20 and May 10. This would have disastrous consequences.

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Guess which model the doctor is referring to in his article? It’s the Covid Act Now model.


So why is the organization or seemingly innocent online mapping tool using inaccurate algorithms to scaremonger leaders into tanking the economy? Politics, of course.

Founders of the site include Democratic Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Silicon Valley tech workers and Democratic activists — Zachary Rosen, Max Henderson, and Igor Kofman — who are all also donors to various Democratic campaigns and political organizations since 2016. Henderson and Kofman donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016, while Rosen donated to the Democratic National Committee, recently resigned Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and other Democratic candidates. Prior to building the COVID Act Now website, Kofman created an online game designed to raise $1 million for the eventual 2020 Democratic candidate and defeat President Trump. The game’s website is now defunct.

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Some Experts Question Coronavirus Models Used by Elected Officials for Emergency Orders

Regarding the COVID ACT NOW model, the Texas Chapter of the Association of American Physicians & Surgeons said, “The model presented has a number of limitations and is likely to be an exaggerated estimate of deaths for the state of Texas.

h/t Daniel Higdon


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