Are we in ‘August 2007’ right now? One more rally before the bear market?

Falling Treasury yields sound like good news. They are actually a warning.

When long-term yields drop, the market is expecting weaker growth.

But underneath it, lenders are reassessing risk. Even as yields fall, they pull back from anyone who looks risky.

You can see it already. Spreads on the junkiest AI debt, the triple Cs, keep creeping up.

The market is saying, not scared yet, but getting choosy.

And that is where the loop turns vicious. Money gets harder to raise, so the bet gets harder to pull off.

The less likely the payoff, the more the market pulls its money.

And every company that bet everything on AI is sitting inside that spiral.

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