I keep coming across conflicting data. Some articles saying there is no spike others saying hospitalizations have remained the same and therefore nothing is happening. Is it too early to tell?
- These are “phased” reopenings + social mitigation efforts, and not always “statewide.” (Some cities, counties are still dealing with spikes.)
- Then, there’s generally a week or two before more people might start showing up “positive” or sick enough to need medical care.
- Additionally, confirming and reporting these positives can take up to two more weeks.
All that said, early reporting looks relatively positive.
There are many factors you need to consider to estimate when numbers will spike:
- Viruses have a natural doubling rate (the number of days it takes for the number of cases to double)
- Incubation period (the number of takes it takes for symptoms to present themselves).
- Average number of days before hospitalization occurs.
The doubling time for COVID-19 is between about 4.5 and 7 days, depending on factors like what precautions the population is taking.
The incubation period is about 7 days on average, but can vary from between 2 two 14 days.
The average time frame when a person is hospitalized is about 3 weeks after infection.
Most places that opened up literally did so last week, so 1. infections haven’t been given the time needed to double yet. 2. Those who have been newly infected probably aren’t experiencing any symptoms yet on average. and 3. almost none of those newly infected would have been hospitalized yet.