Look at this chart: ratio of “present situation” to “expectations” from the Conference Board confidence report. Cut-and-dry sign of a tapped-out consumer. A great leading indicator at turning points because it either coincides with the recession or occurs a few months prior pic.twitter.com/qEf1a8ekVn
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) January 29, 2019
Last week's release of ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment also provided same information with the spread between global current conditions and expectations components hovering at levels that historically preceded recessions. Wide gap has been in place for almost nine months now. pic.twitter.com/5O8baGvTsP
— Eric Corbeil (@ercorbeil) January 30, 2019
"We are getting more worried about downside risks given the declining appetite among consumers for buying cars and homes, in particular among high-income households:" Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok, who created this chart: pic.twitter.com/Lmue97cQZY
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) January 30, 2019
BALTIC DRY INDEX IN A CLIFF DIVE
Probably nothing
Via @TeddyVallee pic.twitter.com/2Q9jXHejBu
— OCCUPY WISDOM (@OccupyWisdom) January 30, 2019
A new 44-year low in the University of Michigan Consumer Expectation Index – Consumer Confidence Present Situtation
Probably nothing right
Via @RVAnalysis pic.twitter.com/KLpPAne43p
— OCCUPY WISDOM (@OccupyWisdom) January 29, 2019
US Pending Home Sales Crash Most In 5 Years https://t.co/FCFrcAbay5
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2019
Pending home sales drop in December despite much lower interest rates https://t.co/Y1mTVVBe2H
— CNBC (@CNBC) January 30, 2019
Germany Slashes 2019 Growth Estimate to 1%
“Euro-area confidence extended its worst losing streak in a decade and Germany’s government added to the pain by slashing its forecast for the region’s largest economy.”
Stephen Roach: Warnings from the Global Trade Cycle