Bank loans and macro analysis

by WARREN MOSLER
Bank lending began to decelerate after oil related capital spending collapsed late in 2014, and then collapsed further about the time of the presidential election:




Note the consumer ‘dipping into savings’ some to sustain consumption via borrowing into year end as personal income flattened:


Real disposable personal income flattened and consumer spending slowed but not as much as income, and was instead supported by consumers ‘dipping into savings’:


This is now impossibly low, given the deceleration in credit:

Employment gains continue to decelerate:

Total vehicle sales were lower in 2017 vs 2016, with domestic autos particularly weak. This is through November:

Slowing growth here as well:

With income and employment decelerating I can’t see the upside?

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