Based on the S&P 500 2008/1998 analogs, the market still has further to rise, but not much more.

Recession: Top Economist Issues Warning

We are primarily funded by readers. Please subscribe and donate to support us!

Mohamed A. El-Erian, a former Obama administration official and the president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said the numbers show it’s “an economy that’s weakening at a much faster rate than most people expected.”

“Inflation is not going to come down fast enough given how fast the economy is weakening and that’s going to put the Fed in the same dilemma it been in,” El-Erian told CNBC on Thursday morning. He added on Twitter that with an “unfavorable miss on jobless claims” combined with the negative GDP, there is a risk of “deepening stagflation and flashing red recession.”

While a second straight quarterly decline in GDP meets the standard definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.”

Yes, We Are in a Recession


Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.