Based on the S&P 500 2008/1998 analogs, the market still has further to rise, but not much more.

Based on the S&P 500 2008/1998 analogs, the market still has further to rise, but not much more. #sp500 pic.twitter.com/wovdIQG8qV

— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) July 28, 2022

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth falls. pic.twitter.com/LWDUOqok2G

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) July 29, 2022

🇰🇷 #SouthKorea’s #Chip Stockpile Swells in Warning Sign for Exports – Bloomberg
*Link: t.co/SGo7fbjX20 pic.twitter.com/0mjuV5NEdi

— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 29, 2022

A more timely version of this same chart is below.

It uses retail sales instead of PCE.

You can see it already shot below the trend.

Does it go lower from here? That's the main question. pic.twitter.com/4rpYsoA2G2

— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) July 28, 2022

During the previous 8 bear markets, the Fed responded with easy money (rate cuts, QE, etc.). This year they’re doing the opposite, hiking rates & expected to continue hiking for the rest of the year. Last time we saw a hawkish Fed during a bear market? Early 1980s under Volcker. pic.twitter.com/DxdYhSi7m4

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 28, 2022

Q2 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change…
^Tesla $TSLA: +42%
^Google $GOOGL: +13%
^Microsoft $MSFT: +12%
S&P 500 $SPY: +10%
'Netflix $NFLX: +9%
*Amazon $AMZN: +7%
^Apple $AAPL: +2%
*Facebook $META: -1%

*Slowest in company history.
'Slowest since 2012.
^Slowest since 2020.

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 28, 2022

Recession: Top Economist Issues Warning

Mohamed A. El-Erian, a former Obama administration official and the president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said the numbers show it’s “an economy that’s weakening at a much faster rate than most people expected.”

“Inflation is not going to come down fast enough given how fast the economy is weakening and that’s going to put the Fed in the same dilemma it been in,” El-Erian told CNBC on Thursday morning. He added on Twitter that with an “unfavorable miss on jobless claims” combined with the negative GDP, there is a risk of “deepening stagflation and flashing red recession.”

While a second straight quarterly decline in GDP meets the standard definition of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.”

Yes, We Are in a Recession