Be prepared! But for what? How, exactly?

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Guest Post by the Hedgeless Horeseman

“Shut your eyes,” said Miss Tanner.
“Oh no,” said Miranda, “for then I see worse things…”

― Katherine Anne Porter, Pale Horse, Pale Rider


History teaches us that because scientists require time to develop a vaccine, the greatest global pandemics ever experienced have been caused by novel viruses.

  • 50 million killed globally by 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic
  • 36 million killed globally by HIV viral pandemic
  • 2 million killed globally by 1956 H2N2 flu pandemic
  • 1.1 million killed globally by 1957 H2N2 flu pandemic
  • 1 million killed globally by 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic
  • 1 million killed globally by 1889 H3N8 flu pandemic

History teaches us that because socialism requires the use of force, the greatest human atrocities ever committed have been inflicted by socialist governments.

  • 70 million killed in China
  • 60 million killed in USSR
  • 4 million killed in Cambodia
  • 5 million killed in North Korea
  • 1 million killed in Yugoslavia
  • 1 million killed in Ethiopia
  • 1 million killed in Indonesia
  • 800,000 killed in Rwanda

You are not going to see those numbers on CNN.  Contrast them with these much smaller ones, which you do hear repeated on MSM…

Dec 18, 2018 – There were 39,773 gun deaths in 2017, up by more than 1,000 from the year before. Nearly two-thirds were suicides. It was the largest yearly total on record in the C.D.C.’s electronic database, which goes back 50 years, and reflects the sheer number of lives lost.

Consider that 2/3 are suicide, and of the 14,000 remaining about 1,000 are police shooting people, and several more thousand are lawful defense of life, liberty, and property.

Sept 26, 2018 – CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

What does a quick and simple assessment of this data tell us?

First, because even the biggest death tolls represent low single-digit percentages of the global population, and we are all going to die sometime, then maybe we should not worry too much about socialism or the flu virus, unless it is disproportionately affecting our locality.  Said another way, those living in China were far more affected by the 70,000,000 killed by socialism than people living in America.  Will the same hold true for the Wuhan virus?  Yes, probably, but not certainly.  Only time will tell.

Second, we might deduce that the best way for us to protect ourselves from the peril of either of these contagions is to prevent the threat from ever taking hold in our homes.


With this simple assessment, we can now design our responses, with a primary goal of prevention, because once we allow a pandemic or socialism to take hold in our homes, we can expect that misery and death shall closely follow.

Fortunately for 3M shareholders, most people do not understand that N95 masks do little to prevent the wearer from catching the flu, especially when used without gloves, eye protection, bunny suit, and most importantly an effective decontamination protocol.

What history and science do tell us works to prevent the flu is cordon sanitaire, quarantine, which comes from the french word for 40 days.

A cordon sanitaire is generally created around an area experiencing an epidemic or an outbreak of infectious disease, or along the border between two nations. Once the cordon is established, people from the affected area are no longer allowed to leave or enter it. In the most extreme form, the cordon is not lifted until the infection is extinguished. Traditionally, the line around a cordon sanitaire was quite physical; a fence or wall was built, armed troops patrolled, and inside, inhabitants were left to battle the affliction without help. In some cases, a “reverse cordon sanitaire” (also known as protective sequestration) may be imposed on healthy communities that are attempting to keep an infection from being introduced. Public health specialists have included cordon sanitaire along with quarantine and medical isolation as “nonpharmaceutical interventions” designed to prevent the transmission of microbial pathogens through social distancing.

The cordon sanitaire is rarely used now because of our improved understanding of disease transmission, treatment and prevention. It remains a useful intervention under conditions in which: 1) the infection is highly virulent (contagious and likely to cause illness); 2) the case fatality rate is very high; 3) treatment is nonexistent or difficult; and 4) there is no vaccine, or other means of immunizing large numbers of people (such as needles or syringes) are lacking.

Many might say that if we want to prevent socialism from killing us here at home, then we simply need to vote against Bernie!  Well, tell that to the minority living in Virginia, now, with Trump as their President.

…all liberty-loving Virginians have found themselves facing a new liberal governor, Red Ralph, a Democrat state house of representatives, and Democrat state senate, which are clearly hell bent on destroying the Bill of Rights, especially the Second Amendment, and criminalizing our natural right to defend our life, liberty, and property.

Are there any good examples of cordon sanitaire, a quarantine, effectively preventing socialism?  Yes, in fact, there is.  The island of Taiwan, now the, Republic of China, is where many Chinese escaped socialism.

After the end of World War II, the Chinese Civil War resumed between the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang), led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communist Party of China, led by Mao Zedong. Throughout the months of 1949, a series of Chinese Communist offensives led to the capture of its capital Nanjing on 23 April and the subsequent defeat of the Nationalist army on the mainland, and the Communists founded the People’s Republic of China on 1 October.

On 7 December 1949, after the loss of four capitals, Chiang evacuated his Nationalist government to Taiwan and made Taipei the temporary capital of the ROC (also called the “wartime capital” by Chiang Kai-shek). Some 2 million people, consisting mainly of soldiers, members of the ruling Kuomintang and intellectual and business elites, were evacuated from mainland China to Taiwan at that time, adding to the earlier population of approximately six million. In addition, the ROC government took to Taipei many national treasures and much of China’s gold reserves and foreign currency reserves.…


So what, exactly, do we need to do to develop a quarantine to protect ourselves and our loved ones?  Should we rely on our elected officials to do it for us?  That certainly did not work in any past instances, and there are several articles here on ZeroHedge indicating that it is not working in Wuhan, today, so we better take matters into our own hands.

Those of you that know me know that I am not an epidemiologist, but I do have a degree in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology, and I did spend many weeks working in China during the height of SARS.  You may also know that our family and some very close friends have had a plan for pandemic in place for several years.  It is quite simple, really.  We have selected and prepared a defensible and livable location to quarantine ourselves that is stocked with enough food, water, and supplies to last us more than a year.  It includes a separate living space in which to quarantine outsiders, and another separate space to treat anyone with symptoms.

If you have read my article, Forget a Plan B! Do you have a Plan Zero?, then you know that we have also developed a plan for us, and for you, dear ZeroHedge readers, to try to protect ourselves and our loved ones should socialism or some similar peril find its way to our locality.

Although the idea of a Little House on the Prairie meets Gangs of New York community of ZHers is certainly compelling, a libertarian utopia for sure, our current living and working arrangements are simply too nice, and the world is still a bit too sane, for the vast majority of us to pull up stakes and come together in one place to live freely and to defend one another’s life, liberty, and property.  However, as we know, that can all change in a moment.  If it does change, and everything goes to zero, then we Zero Hedgers certainly need to have our hedges in place.  It is not like we haven’t been warned.  Alternatively, we can plan to rely on the government to tell us what to do and where to go.  I am sure Bernie’s socialists will have a nice re-education kamp where we can all, “…earn a living wage.”…

We have already received many applications, and are working through them, but have not yet met the limit of 1776.



The hard question, always, for anyone making predictions is, “When?”  The same is true for those implementing plans such as these.  When do you shut the gates to the castle?  When do you move your family to Taiwan?

For the Wuhan virus, considering the possibility of up to 14 days of asymptomatic contagion, we plan to initiate our quarantine as soon as we suspect that our local area’s hospitals have more than one Wuhan virus patient in ICU on a ventilator.  This is because we have decided that the risk of getting sick becomes unacceptable once there are no more ICU beds and ventilators available.  If we wait for the government to act, possibly first by closing our local schools, then we may be too late.


By Playing Conflicted: The Survival Card Game you’ll realize that the thin veil of civilized behavior our current modern society currently portrays is easily torn apart. We all have a breaking point, where our will to live speaks louder than our own morals. That breaking point is at a different place for everyone.

An adult party game with a post-apocalyptic twist that will give you hours of fun, as you see a side of the other players you wish didn’t exist.


When do we implement our Plan Zero?  As First Sergeant at Max Velocity Tactical likes to say, “It depends.”  What he means is that the correct answer will vary based on the specific situation.  We do know, however, that we do not want to wait too long.

“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

– Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago

So, no more excuses.  Get fit…

hedgeless_horseman’s 100 Days of Fitmas for ZeroHedge readers that do not want to appear hypocritical when shaming fatties.…

Get your gear sorted out (see below), and get good training.  Only then will you be able to relax and pay closer attention to the situation so that you can make good decisions.  Hopefully, this will all blow over before we are supposed to get together at Devils Tower in May.  If not, there will be several highly-relevant topics and speakers…

  • Living Off Grid: Against All Odds
  • Yoga: Rex Titter
  • Applied Metaphysics: Last1Out
  • The Harmonica: JM
  • Thermite and Purple Gold, Dr M
  • Natural Medicine: Leland Stillman, MD
  • Spyware and Big Data: MG
  • Fighting: Heath Herring
  • Hallucinogens: Alayna Kruger
  • Rambling: Nathaniel Bell
  • Hinduism and Alternative Human History: Bill Cypher
  • HAM Radio: Doug Loveridge K5DHL
  • Meditation: Damir Dizdarevic
  • Linux: RW Sputnik
  • Fasting: Dr Z
  • Micro Dairy: hedgeless and mrs_horseman…

Peace, health, liberty, prosperity, and love!



By request…

The Good Stuff

Level I

Watch with compass – Casio Pro Trek Solar
Folding knife – Hoffner

Battle belt
Elite Survival Systems 1.5″ Shooters Belt with Cobra Buckle-Coyote Brown $59
Adjustable Kydex Belt Holster for your pistol, such as the Stryker by Galco $69
Two – High Speed Gear TACO belt mount rifle magazine pouches – Coyote Brown $88
Hoffner Hand Spear Fixed Blade Knife $100
SureFire G2X Tactical LED Flashlight $60
SureFire Rugged Polymer Speed Holster $24
Leatherman MUT with Bit Set $160
Condor 3 Fold Magazine Recovery Pouch – Coyote Brown $15
SOF Tourniquet GEN 4 with case $50
Blue Force Gear Admin Pouch –  Coyote Brown $56
Halo Chest Seal $16
Two – North American Rescue ARS® Needle Decompression Kits 10 ga $30
Two Alcohol pads or Iodine Swabs
North American Rescue Flat Emergency Trauma Dressing bandage $8
Celox-A $28
Nasopharyngeal airway.  Carry your own size: Measure from nostril to the ear hole and further described by internal diameter in mm (range from 2–9 mm in half sizes) commonly 6–7 mm in an adult female and 7–8 mm for an adult male  $7
Oral Airway – carry your own size: large adults 5 – 6; medium adults 4 – 5; small adults size 3 – 4. $7
Cricothyrotomy Kit: Betadine Swab, Scalpel, Angled Forceps, ET tube size 5 and Inflation Syringe, Tape  $45
3M Steri-Strip Elastic Skin Closures – 1/2″ x 4″ – 6 Strip Envelope $12
Extra Strength Tylenol packets $5
Ibuprofen packets $5

Mole Skin
Alcohol prep

Eye protection
Electronic hearing protection AAA (2)

Level II

Rifle with sling, magnified optic, BUIS, weapon mounted light, and IR laser 
BlueForce Gear Tenspeed Chest rig – 4 magazines
Enola Gaye EG18 smoke grenade in molle pouch
CAT Tourniquet #2 in molle pouch
Compass #2
Notebook and pen
Waterproof matches
Steel stuck case and cleaning rod
Leatherman multi-tool bit set
Spare bolt, firing pin, springs, retaining pin, etc.
Lens pen for optic
Radio in chest rig pouch with AA pack and PTT
Rifle plates in “slick” plate carrier
Kevlar helmet with NVG mount, red light, scrim
Spare batteries AA-2, AAA-2, 123-2 (on helmet as counter weight)
First Spear Fight Strap with 5 add’l loaded magazines

Level III

Patrol pack with hydration bladder
NVG in hard case AA (2)
Crye Night Cap or helmet with NVG mount

Slick 2000 gun oil
Cleaning solvent
Cleaning brush

Gen III ECWCS Level 6 jacket and trousers rain gear
GI Gore-Tex Bivy Cover

Dry bag
Down stuffable Patagonia jacket with hood
Spare base layer, wool hat, gloves, and socks in dry bag
Toilet paper and maxi pads in dry bag

Additional spare rechargeable batteries AA (6 in a spare radio pack), cr123 (2)
Spare optic and helmet light batteries CR2032 (2)

Sawyer water filter with pouch
Water purification tablets
Electrolytes/Caffeine gels

Tactical Medical Solutions Ultralight Poleless Litter
Tylenol, Advil, and anti-diarrhea packets
Spare RX glasses
Camouflage face paint
Insect repellent

Large black zip ties 4

Scott ProMask NATO 40mm Gas Mask w/ CBRN Filters
Zytron 400 Coverall w/ Hood & Sock Boots
Showa 874R Unlined Butyl Glove w/ Rough Grip

Decon 7 BDAS+ (Biological Decontaminant Accelerated Spray)


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