“We’ll need more of X in the future.”
I keep seeing this used as the entire investment thesis.
More AI chips.
More memory.
More rockets.
More Walmart shopping.
Maybe.
But none of that tells you what the stock is worth today.
That’s the trap.
You can correctly predict that demand for something will explode and still lose money if the stock already assumes that explosion.
Look at AI.
Everyone agrees we will need more computing.
Everyone agrees data centers will grow.
Everyone agrees memory demand will rise.
That doesn’t mean every AI or semiconductor stock is a buy at today’s price.
The same thing happened with real estate.
People were right that property would become more valuable over time.
They still got crushed buying it at the wrong price.
The internet became enormously more important.
That didn’t save investors who paid insane prices for internet stocks.
Being right about the product is not the same thing as being right about the investment.
The question isn’t:
“Will we need more of this?”
It’s:
“How much of that future growth is already sitting in today’s stock price?”
That’s the question people keep skipping.