tl;dr – Compared with hard economic data, [market-based models that predict recessions are] more forward-looking. But not only can markets get it wrong, they’re also prone to rapid reversal, undermining their reliability as the harbingers of doom. “You cannot get the equivalent of a thousand-point drop in the real economy in 24 hours, but you can in the financial markets,” said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business. “So, if the model you’re looking at is dominated by financial numbers, there’s a much higher chance you can get a major reversal.” Vanguard’s Davis has a model which blends economic data and market measures and has spit out a 35 percent probability. “We’ll still have growth scares,” he said. “But fate hasn’t been set for 2019.”
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