BLUE WAVE? Polarization Seems to Be Helping Republicans in Run-Up to Midterms. “Energized voters on the right dim prospects for big Democratic gains in red districts and states.”

Nate Cohn:

The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court seems to have contributed to polarizing the electorate, helping Republicans gain in red states and districts even as Democrats cement their strong position elsewhere. The trend might fade, but if it holds it will be an abrupt change from earlier polls and last year’s special election results, which indicated that Democrats were highly competitive in red areas.

Instead, the district and state polling raises the possibility of an election more like last year’s Virginia elections or the 2010 midterm elections. Both were strong results for the party out of power — but the big numbers came mainly on home turf. A similar result this year would tend to lock the Democrats into their single biggest disadvantage: the map.

The Democratic geographic disadvantage is so severe that it gives the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election, like the 1994, 2006 and 2010 elections that flipped control of the House.

Don’t. Get. Cocky.

 

Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says.

  • The poll of 800 Americans across the country, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent, found a six-point Democratic lead on the question of who voters will choose in the November congressional elections.

  • The 42 percent to 36 percent margin is not far from what pollsters would expect given the greater percentage of Democratic registered voters.

  • Working in the Republicans’ favor is not only record-high optimism about the economy but also about the stock market and near-record high optimism about wage growth.

 

NEW CIVILITY WATCH: Democrat Party Official Says Republicans Should Be Brought “to The Guillotines.”

A member of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party was suspended after saying Republicans should be brought “to the guillotines” after the November midterm elections.

William Davis, who is the spokesman for the party in Minnesota, commented in a Facebook post: “11.7 — bring them to the guillotines.” Party executive director Corey Day said Davis deleted the post and party spokeswoman Charlene Briner said Davis’s suspension started Monday with no pay for one week, according to The Associated Press.

So much for “Minnesota Nice,” about which Wikipedia assures me that “The tradition of social progressivism in Minnesota politics has been linked to the Minnesota Nice culture.”

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