Bond Speculators have piled into the largest SHORT position in history.
Similar extreme positioning led to some of the biggest Bond rallies of all time.
With so much riding on recovery/reflation – if markets go back to risk-off/deflation, it could trigger a very painful unwind. pic.twitter.com/JmgB3oSjhb
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 12, 2020
One of my most important Models is approaching the most overbought level in history.
This is the 18th signal in 20+ years – most signals WITHOUT a Breadth Thrust led to big declines.
Stocks could rally into month-end, but 3Q20 is at full risk of a bigger Tactical regime shift. pic.twitter.com/dSP0Aev7pi
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 11, 2020
This week's Magazine Covers as always mirroring social mood – the theme is JOBS and lots of Red & Black (crisis colors):
TIME: "The Great Reckoning"
BARRON'S: "20.5 Million"
ECONOMIST: "A Dangerous Gap: The Markets v The Real Economy"Check out the street names in the last one. pic.twitter.com/C5LzHvdDiB
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 9, 2020
Sentiment.
AAII BULLS lowest 6.5% in history (1987) – but has room to drift a bit lower.
BEARS top 2.5% ever, B/B Spread bottom 2.2%.
Similar pessimism marked the end of the 1990/2002 Bear Markets – but more *basing* was needed.
In 2008, the Bear was just getting started. pic.twitter.com/jKdXayTlnp
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 7, 2020