Investors: Pricing in too much of a recovery? Price has moved well ahead of earnings. Here, the drawdown & subsequent recovery in the #SPX price index against the drawdown in various earnings estimates, including fiscal yrs 2020, ‘21 & ‘22 & the next 12 mos, with Bloomberg data. pic.twitter.com/cVEpjWW4tS
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) May 11, 2020
This is not what a market pricing in a big cyclical recovery looks like. pic.twitter.com/0kRypruz5R
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) May 11, 2020
The economists over the weekend were rejoicing over the fact that in the past two months, 3/4 of those losing their job thought it was ”temporary”. As if the 5 million positions lost that are deemed to be permanent, two years’ worth of job creation, are somehow irrelevant.
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 11, 2020
The @WSJ on why " #China Economic Data Indicate V-Shaped #Recovery Is Unlikely."
Remember, whether it's globally, regionally or, in the United States, nationally: the economic lockdown is being lifted in an unsynchronized fashion for now.t.co/7bUIpKin6V#economy #markets pic.twitter.com/OC8pMNXCzj
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 12, 2020
Put Call Ratio – a fist full of Calls and long the market – OE is generally an UP week.11 Billion Dollars of POMO today, says buying the dip should be profitable? The rule is over 5 Billion, up day. Monday flat day with 4 Billion in Pomo – Wednesday 5.75 Billion slightly up day pic.twitter.com/DyI1GaDWzI
— David Larew (@ThinkTankCharts) May 12, 2020
Small businesses know the economy is going to be terrible in the short run and that their own sales might suffer a record drop, but they are more hopeful the corner will start to turn in the next several months, a closely followed survey showed.
Scientists warn that a much-feared "second wave" of coronavirus infections may become a storm of wavelets breaking unpredictably across the U.S. as more states move to reopen despite not meeting the minimal requirements to do so safely.t.co/KjHxLBuBTX
— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 11, 2020