Bull Case / Bear Case

by thetaTrader1729

Just trying to collect all ideas for bull case/bear case. I am biased on the bull side just a disclaimer. But I will try to provide sources whenever I can.

Anything posted in the comments I will update the list.

Bull Case

  1. The Fed
  2. Other countries central bank
    1. www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-crashed-swiss-national-bank-went-faamg-buying-spree
  3. Sovereign Funds
    1. www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/08/saudi-arabia-has-taken-a-major-stake-in-carnival-w.aspx
  4. Pension Funds
  5. Election Year
  6. Reopening
  7. High unemployment with Stimulus Checks
  8. High unemployment and casinos are closed
  9. FOMO
  10. Short Squeeze
  11. A lot of Liquidity
  12. MM / Big Players loaded up in bottom will not let it crash
  13. Vaccine
  14. All of the world best mind are focused on this problem
  15. V-Shaped Recovery
  16. There is no better place to put your money than in the market. Bonds suck. Oil? Forget about it. Most commodities are low. Where shall you put your retirement? Savings? There are threats to that going negative. The market is the only game in town.
  17. Volatility never remains this high for very long. We’re close to a 30-year record. Declining volatility spikes are always associated with higher prices.

Bear Case

  1. Pesky Valuation / Fundamentals
    1. We haven’t paid attention to fundamentals in a long time.
  2. Earning will be decreasing and will not return to the 2020 level for 2-3 years
  3. Unemployment will remain high
    1. Maybe a good argument for UBI? so stocks should go even higher
  4. Trade war with China
    1. Maybe this brings all jobs back to the US so good for the economy. This can be good or bad depending on how you see it.
  5. Food Shortages
  6. L or U shaped recovery
  7. Depression / Recession
    1. Not sure about this one, as Fed will just print more. So stocks will rise even more
  8. Waves of Virus
    1. Maybe more stimulus, more Fed Intervention
  9. Democrats in 2020
    1. They normally spend even more than Republicans
  10. States / Cities Bankruptcy
  11. Trump/Pence catches Rona
  12. A lot of money sitting on the sideline
  13. Highest money market fund. I feel like this can be fuel for the rally for the stairway to heaven.
  14. Everyone is bearish / most hated rally
  15. Maybe this will keep fueling this rally even more
  16. Lots of Retail buying
  17. Buffett not buying
  18. US Yield Curve is trying to invert. At least the futures are dipping into negative yields.
  19. Oil hits rock bottom again, which shows that the current market prices are not indicative of prices in 10 days.

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.