Check Out Citi’s Surprise Indices

by confoundedinterest

The Citi Economic Surprise Indices measure data surprises relative to market expectations. A positive reading means that data releases have been stronger than expected and a negative reading means that data releases have been worse than expected.

Unfortunately for the USA, it has a negative economic surprise measure, followed closely by the Eurozone (also negative). The “leader” in the Economic Surprise Derby is … Emerging Markets. ALSO negative.

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As a sign of meh economic growth, market implied policy rates are 2.38% for the USA, -0.40% for the Eurozone and -0.06% for Japan.

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The expected Fed Funds target rates are trending downwards.

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Eurozone expected target rates are negative.

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Even Australia is downward trending. Like an overcooked shrimp on the barby.

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True, the lofty expectations for the US economy are not being met.

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