China’s economic slowdown and nascent recovery in charts

by cefpodoxime

FT China economic activity index ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator.svg?frame=webM

FT China subindices ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator-subindices.svg?frame=webL

Shanghai composite stock index stood at 3115 on Jan 13 before China shutdown. Then it fell to a short term bottom of 2746 on Feb 3, recovered to 3071 on March 5, before plummeting past it’s nadir now (2660 right now on March 23).

Perhaps we’ll see parallels in the US stock market reaction to the scattered lockdowns and economic data to come (sustained dead cat bounce from its brief bottom of sub 2200 in ES futures last night, followed by a plunge below 2000 on the SP500 in a couple weeks)

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see also: www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Without a doubt, we are going to see a bounce (likely starting tomorrow) that heads up pretty fast and then plummets back down further when layoffs and more dire virus numbers appear.

We don’t know where the market will go, but one thing we do know is it almost never just immediately recovers from a bear/recession market. We are going to see heavy up and down swings.

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.

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