Chinese analyst sees $AAPL iPhone 14 Pro demand “wiped out” in 4Q 2022

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (TF International Securities) is out today with some new predictions on iPhone 14 Pro sales numbers. According to Kuo, Apple Inc’s “shipments in December are still significantly lower than expected.”

Based on developments in China, here’s what Kuo predicts :

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  1. The production of the Zhengzhou iPhone factory was significantly affected by the workers’ protests, so I revised down the 4Q22 iPhone shipment forecast by about 20% to 70-75 million units (vs. the market consensus of 80-85 million units).
    (1) The total shipments of iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max in 4Q22 were 15-20 million units less than expected.
    (2) The average capacity utilization rate of the Zhengzhou iPhone factory in November was only about 20%, and it is expected to improve to 30-40% in December.
    (3) Pegatron and Luxshare have obtained about 10% of the iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max orders from Hon Hai, respectively, but mass shipments will not be until late December at the earliest.
    (4) According to the production recovery progress of the iPhone 14 Pro series, shipments in December are still significantly lower than expected.

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