Everyone assumes Copart needs more car accidents to grow.
I think that’s yesterday’s story.
The real story is what happens after the accident.
Think about a car that cost $6,000 to repair in 2015.
Today, that same collision might require a new bumper, radar module, cameras, ADAS calibration, wiring harnesses, LED headlights, and dozens of electronic components. Suddenly the repair bill is $14,000.
The accident didn’t get worse.
The car did.
That’s why Copart’s latest earnings may have revealed something much bigger than another strong quarter.
Total-loss frequency reached 23.6%, the highest in the company’s history. Nearly one in four insured vehicles involved in claims are now being declared total losses instead of repaired.
That’s the number almost everyone is missing.
It doesn’t tell you accidents are increasing.
It tells you the economics of repairing modern vehicles are breaking down.
Insurance companies are reaching the point where fixing the car simply doesn’t make financial sense.
The rest of the numbers reinforce that story.
Insurance unit volumes actually fell about 4%, yet average selling prices for insurance vehicles reached a seasonal record.
Read that again.
Fewer totaled cars entered the market, but buyers still paid record prices for them.
Demand stayed strong even while supply shrank.
Another force is quietly feeding into this.
Insurance premiums have become so expensive that more drivers are dropping collision coverage, switching to liability-only policies, or raising deductibles. That changes how claims enter the system, but it doesn’t solve the underlying problem.
Cars keep getting more expensive to repair.
Industry forecasts still expect online salvage auctions to keep growing, driven by rising total-loss rates and continued adoption of digital auctions.
That’s why I don’t think Copart is really a bet on accident frequency anymore.
It’s becoming a bet on claim severity.
The safer cars become, the more technology they carry.
The more technology they carry, the more expensive they become to repair.
Eventually, insurers stop asking, “Can we fix it?”
They ask, “Is it worth fixing?”
That’s a very different business.
And it’s one that may have years left to run.
Note: This is not financial advice and is for educational purposes only.