Corona Virus Research and Stock DD

by BPBT2020

Part 1

Alright boys. I’ve been researching the Corona Virus heavily for the last month. These four snapshots from Corona virus research articles basically sum up where academic researchers are at, and these range from being submitted in early February to last week.

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The fact that we are seeing an 14% virus resurgence in cleared survivors is very concerning. Really points towards those infected being put into quarantine for an additional month after testing negative. Japan and China are both experiencing resurgence. (r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO56100960W0A220C2AC8000?s=4)

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This means that China factories are hammered, which will further interrupt their their supply chains, two weeks ago cargo ships were leaving at 10% capacity.

On 2/25, the CDC detailed multiple stark realities about where this disease is headed. I encourage you to read the transcript: www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

Keep in mind, the asymptomatic period was reported to be 27 days.. Today alone we saw Pakistan, Algeria, Brazil, Finland, Georgia, and Greece report their first cases, which means that these patients could have been spreading it undetected for up to 3-4 weeks.

South Korea is in a full state of emergency, enacted emergency funding, and are trying their best to contain it but they have yet to contain the virus from spreading. Countries are banning flights from many of the outbreak countries now, hopefully this should help.

The article speculating that a 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus was submitted on February 7th.

This article really stands out to me because the study was funded by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). DARPA is a HUGE part of the US department of defense that specializes in weapons research and development, their budget 2019 was $3.4 billion dollars.

The CDC & FDA will be under big pressure to issue CODX with FDA approval for their test kits. It has already been reported that the CDC’s test kits are faulty, Hawaii will not get any test kits until mid March, and only 5 or 6 states have testing capabilities right now.

CODX’s test kits are speculated to retail for $25,000 each and the CEO reported this weekend that they have the capabilities to produce up to 150k units a day between their main Utah facility and facility in India.

The crazy part is… one BIG event researchers are worried about is when the virus hits South America and the bat population fuels the spread and possibly future mutations of the virus. With the carnival in Brazil last week they saw big tourism numbers, they had their first confirmed case yesterday.

If you’d like to reach the research articles that I pulled the above snap shots from for your self:

  1. “The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated”: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf+html
  2. “Relative Sensitivity of International Surveillance”: www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College—COVID-19—Relative-Sensitivity-International-Cases.pdf
  3. “Assessing the impact of a symptom-based mass screening and testing intervention during a novel infectious disease outbreak: The case of COVID-19”: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025973v1
  4. “Estimation of the epidemic properties of the 2019 novel coronavirus: A mathematical modeling study”: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024315v1

My portfolio is currently 33% CODX, 33% APT, and 33% AHPI.

  • CODX: Shares Outstanding 24,916,000, Float 16,954,890, Insider Ownership, 26.66% Insitutional Ownership 3.70%.
  • APT: Shares Outstanding 13,021,000, Float 10,133,697, Insider Ownership 22.14%, Insitutional Ownership 25.50%.
  • AHPI: Shares Outstanding 4,014,000, Float 2,286,607, Insider Ownership 2.30%, Insitutional Ownership 10.00%.

IMO, Test kits and personal protection medical equipment is what you’re going to want to be in. Corona Vaccine stocks like MRNA and AIM are too risky imo. Below are the stocks that will see big returns until the virus gets under control:

  • Medical supplies (LAKE, APT, AHPI, BIMI)
  • Vaccine / treatment (NNVC, NVAX, MRNA, INO, SXTC)
  • Drugs / Testing (LLIT, CODX, CJJD)

If you’d like to keep up on the news reports, below are two good ones I recommend along with a website keeps track of infections:

 

 

 

Part 2

As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer claimed, “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.”

The Coronavirus outbreak has reached the “highest level” of risk for the world, the World Health Organization announced today. Bill Gates calls coronavirus a ‘once-in-a-century’ pathogen. The Dow fell over 3,500 points this week.

The US Federal Reserve’s Chairman stated “U.S. economy remain strong”, Iran has no plans to quarantine cities, The acting US administration is lying to the public, and has barred the top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public.

  • 84,154 confirmed cases worldwide (7 day Increase:🔺5,958 or 7.61%)
  • 2,876 fatalities

Countries with First Case Outbreaks between 2/26 – 2/28

  1. Mexico
  2. Azerbaijan
  3. Belarus
  4. Lithuania
  5. Nigeria
  6. San Marino
  7. Netherlands
  8. Estonia
  9. Denmark
  10. Romania
  11. Norway
  12. Georgia
  13. North Macedonia
  14. Greece
  15. Brazil
  16. Iceland
  17. Monaco

Keep in mind the asymptomatic period was reported to be at most 27 days and patients whom recovered are developing the coronavirus and testing positive again, which means public exposure in these countries could have begun weeks ago. By Monday, I estimate that there will be at least 2,000 total new cases in the above countries experiencing the new outbreaks alone.

Why does this matter? This weekend the Corona Virus news will be flowing steadily, thus IMO influencing the virus stocks to continue to rise on Monday and throughout next week.

Controlling the outbreak is going to become increasingly difficult.

To control the majority of viral outbreaks, for R0 of 2-5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced.The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.

Researchers estimate the R0 value of COVID-19 to be likely between 4.7 and 6.6. Further, they speculate that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

The Case of Africa

With the continent’s high volume of air traffic and trade between China new outbreaks are inevitable.

Without treatment or vaccines, and without pre-existing immunity, sustained Corona Virus outbreaks might be devastating due to the multiple health challenges the continent already faces: rapid population growth and increased movement of people; existing endemic diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus, tuberculosis, and malaria; remerging and emerging infectious pathogens such as Ebola virus disease, Lassa haemorrhagic fever, and others; and increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases.

Governments are already anticipating demand and addressing supply chain management, mapping, and stockpiling of COVID-19 response needs: large quantities of personal protective equipment, gloves, surgical masks, coveralls, and hoods, and medical countermeasures like antiviral agents.

IMO, the market for the products of Corona Virus stocks will increase exponentially when new outbreaks begin in this continent.

The Stock Market

Things are about to get way worse.

The Harvard Business review predicts that the peak of the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains will occur in mid-March, forcing thousands of companies to throttle down or temporarily shut assembly and manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe. The activity of Chinese manufacturing plants has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months.

Brace for a major effect on manufacturing worldwide. It will begin to hit full force in two to three weeks and could last for months. IMO, the only safe plays are plastic, Biotech, and Biopharmaceutical stocks. Liquidate your other positions now so you can buy back in lower.

The Vaccines Stocks

According to the WHO, more than 20 coronavirus vaccines are in development around the world. IMO, I am waiting to invest in the below companies once they release more data on their Corona virus vaccines.

Gilead Sciences ($GILD)🔻6% this week

Shares Outstanding 1,263,640,000, Float 1,257,113,299, Insider Ownership 0.53%, Institutional Ownership 85.30%

  • On 2/26 announced that it’s initiating two late-stage clinical studies to evaluate its experimental antiviral drug remdesivir in treating adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease COVID-19.
  • Currently evaluating the antiviral drug in two studies in China, and recently began a study in the U.S. led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

Moderna INC ($MRNA) 🔺 34% this week

Shares Outstanding 362,853,000, Float 220,527,176, Insider Ownership 2.90%, Institutional Ownership 49.10%

  • Recently announced that it has shipped the first batch of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, known as mRNA-1273, to U.S. governmental researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. An early-stage trial for the vaccine is slated to kick off this April.
  • CEO cautions that an approved treatment is more than a year away.

Novavax ($NVAX) 🔺 93% this week

Shares Outstanding 32,122,600, Float 31,917,176, Insider Ownership 0.10%, Institutional Ownership 21.40%

  • On 2/26 announced progress in its efforts to develop a novel vaccine to protect against coronavirus disease COVID-19. Novavax has produced and is currently assessing multiple nanoparticle vaccine candidates in animal models prior to identifying an optimal candidate for human testing, which is expected to begin by the end of spring 2020.

NanoViricides Inc. ($NNVC) 🔻 5% this week

Shares Outstanding 3,854,000, Float 3,249,889, Insider Ownership 15.64%, Institutional Ownership 2.00%

Vaccine Manufacturer

Ibio Inc. ($IBIO)🔺 665% this week

Shares Outstanding 76,195,500, Float 72,305,339, Insider Ownership 41.32%, Institutional Ownership 10.00%

The Testing Stock

Co-Diagnostics ($CODX)🔺 293% this week

Shares Outstanding 24,916,000, Float 16,954,890, Insider Ownership 26.66%, Institutional Ownership 3.70%

  • CODX’s CDI test is able to detect 2019-nCoV in asymptomatic patients, is cost efficient, and has the ability to run 48 samples at once. High sample size is important due to governments looking to stock health clinics. The CoDx design software automates the discovery process and helps design the CoPrimers faster than could be done by hand.
  • On 2/24 received CE mark in the European Union for its COVID-19 test.
  • CODX’s test are reportedly, “easier to use than those from the CDC”
  • CEO reported received overwhelming interest in our novel coronavirus diagnostic from all over the world since first announcing its development a month ago.
  • In a 2/21 interview CODX’s CEO stated, “they are in the middle of talks with the FDA, who have been very responsive”.
  • Maxim Group recently wrote up a review of the company and stock, which was very promising.
  • Last public offering on 2/12

OpGen Inc ($OPGN) 🔺 112% this week

Shares Outstanding 5,602,000, Float 5,560,982, Insider Ownership 0.35%, Institutional Ownership 14.10%

  • Collaborating directly with Chinese genomics companies (BGI) in making molecular testing for the new coronavirus.
  • BGI was the first to sequence the genome of 2019-nCoV and has developed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for its detection.
  • Chain reaction test already obtained approval by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration.

Medical Supply Stocks

Health systems around the world are just not ready,” Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO emergencies program, told a news briefing.

The FDA is keenly aware that the outbreak will likely affect the medical product supply chain, including potential disruptions to suppliers shortages of critical medical products in the US. The US relies heavily on Chinese-made medical devices, with their supply chain disrupted domestics medical supply companies have skyrocket.

Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. ($APT) 🔺 215% this week

Shares Outstanding 13,021,000, Float 10,133,697, Insider Ownership 22.14% , Institutional Ownership 25.50%

Allied Healthcare Products Inc. ($AHPI) 🔺 832% this week

Shares Outstanding 4,014,000, Float 2,286,607, Insider Ownership 2.30%, Institutional Ownership 10.00%

  • AHPI is a leading manufacturer of medical gas construction equipment, respiratory therapy equipment, home healthcare products, and emergency medical supplies. Our products appear worldwide in a range of medical applications, including hospital care, sub-acute treatment, long-term care, home healthcare, and medical emergencies.
  • The Company’s revenues are derived primarily from the sales of respiratory products, medical gas equipment and emergency medical products. The products are generally sold directly to distributors, customers affiliated with buying groups, individual customers and construction contractors, throughout the world.

Harvard Bioscience ($HBIO) 🔺 25% this week

Shares Outstanding 38,066,000, Float 33,950,000, Insider Ownership 2.60%, Institutional Ownership 67.00%

Additional: $LAKE🔺40% this week, $BIMI🔺5% this week, $LLIT🔻4% this week

The USA

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States.

Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed.

Congress is working toward approving $6-8 billion to fight coronavirus. White House Director of Legislative Affairs stated the goal is to have Trump sign the funding package next week.

As of 2/28. there are now 61 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the United States, according to an update today by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These include:

  • 43 people who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship
  • 3 people repatriated from China
  • 15 US cases

The 15 US cases include nine in California, one in Massachusetts, one in Washington state, one in Arizona, two in Illinois and one in Wisconsin. Among these cases, there are two instances of person-to-person transmission, one in Illinois and one in California. The latest case in California did not have any relevant travel history or known contact with another infected person, suggesting it could be the first instance of “community spread” of the virus in the United States, according to health officials.

The CDC aims to have ALL state and local health departments testing for coronavirus by end of next week. Word choice of all is interesting here, we already know that the CDC didn’t have an ample supply of test kits and they were reported as inaccurate last week. If the were going to provide each state and local health departments with testing capabilities, this might be a signal that test kits developed in the private sector will be distributed.

Looking Forward to Next Week

IMO, the virus news this weekend will be off the charts. As new outbreaks occur and the sustained outbreaks continue, the demand for these corona virus stocks will rise.

I still stand by the recommendation from my initial posting, in which I suggested investing into the companies producing test kits and personal protection / medical equipment.

I am still currently holding $APT, $AHPI, and $CODX. No vaccine companies at the moment. I feel that there is a great deal of profit to be made swinging these stocks using 15 second candle chart & the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average. Take a look at how the stock behaved the last two days and find a plan that can work for you. Watch the volume in premarket as well on the various virus stock to get a sense of where the interest is for that day.

My Portfolio Breakdown:

  • 65.5% AHPI: On Friday AHPI reached a crazy premarket high of $67 a share. Upon market opening, price dropped steaply down to $16. Looks to be continuing along a trend line for now. The reason I increased my holding % here is because the float is considerably smaller than APT. imgur.com/u9BO2UY
  • 6.3% APT: Similarly to AHPI, the price reached a big high premarket and corrected its self to the support from 2/27. imgur.com/orOnmri
  • 28.2% CODX: Big swings here. Had been previously following the 50 day moving average and corrected down to the 200 day / trend line. Still waiting on FDA approval or PR from the company on order numbers. Will sell upon receiving FDA approval for their test kits. imgur.com/MTTw8Y1

News Sources:

 

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.