If you have been a long term reader here you know that I have something called a ‘Crash Signature.’
One of the key components of this is a significant decline from a new all time high, that rallies substantially so that the fear subsides and most believe there is a return to ‘normal’ bubble conditions.
Unfortunately, IF this is a rally that fails, in that it fails to set a new high, but tops out and then falls sharply again, we have a higher potential of a crash in which confidence is shattered and a new lower low is set.
I have a correspondent in France who also does trend tracking such as this. While I have normally been using a composite model of several crashes from US market history (1929, 1974, 1987, 2001, 2008) he is concentrating lately on a comparison to the year of 1937.
It should be noted that the ‘crash’ of 1937 pales in comparison to the Crash of 1929. And it was largely caused by an egregious policy error by the Fed.
If you look at it carefully it does follow the ‘crash signature.’
Here is the latest chart which he has sent to me. I think if we fail once again to take out ‘The Wall’ on my SP 500 chart, and drop to a lower low, there will be a higher than normal probability of a ‘crash.’
Although I have to add that we are in the days of organized support, and mobilization of the entire country’s money mechanisms, to support stock prices for the benefit of their primary constituents.
The next few months could be memorable.