We’ve been watching the stock market swing back and forth for months, maybe even more than a year, as the promise of a trade deal comes and goes.
There was I thought I had, back at the start, that became lost in the chaos. And I’ve only just remembered it.
You see, the truth is that China isn’t quite as rich as it claims to be. While the official numbers suggest that China is gaining on the US, several studies have found reason to believe that Chinese GDP is drastically lower than claimed. By looking at the amount of light output by China at night – a reasonable metric to discern how civilized any given point of land is – we’ve ascertained that there could be as much as 15 to 30% less growth in China’s GDP than reported. Don’t take it from me – take it from Brown, The University of Chicago, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Washington Post.
“I find that a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 2.4 percent increase in GDP in the most democratic countries and with a 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent increase in GDP in the most authoritarian ones,” Martinez said. The most obvious explanation is that those countries are the most likely to fudge their GDP figures to make their political leaders look good. (Washington Post)
The thought I had about China, back when this all started, was that if China tries to play hardball – the way they are right now – China will lose. They don’t actually have the legs to stand on their own if they lose America’s business. However, taking advantage of the polarized political climate, it looks like China is wagering that Trump will be replaced by someone who will give them a better deal.
We’ve seen the Blizzard fiasco. Blizzard has bent over and pulled down its pants as an offering to the supposedly up-and-coming Chinese economy. Lets be fucking real: that’s the wrong bet. By Activision’s own numbers, the entire Asian region is worth only one-third of what the America’s bring in.
I would expect that this isn’t a unique story. China has lost its status as the cheapest labor provider. And it hasn’t built a strong market of consumers to drive investments by large businesses as the cost of Chinese labor increases. Instead, the Chinese regime has locked up millions of Muslims in concentration camps in Xianjing,, pushed spyware-ridden electronics, continued to foster racism in the modern world, and created what might be the region’s largest humanitarian crisis since Tiananmen Square (Hong Kong).
And that’s the truth about China – no matter how much they try to polish their appearance to outsiders, we can’t forget that they are ultimately authoritarian. The Chinese government falls under the same umbrella as those of North Korea and Russia. And like North Korea and Russia, their strategic moves are often bluffs. They’ll hide it until the last possible moment, but they absolutely do not have the numbers to back themselves up.
We might bleed, but as long as we dont back down, this trade war belongs to the West. Companies that can’t see through the smoke and mirrors are going to be burned. Unless the Orange Man gets impeached, it’s time to go short on pro-China stocks.
Previous post was removed by moderators. This post was updated to be more clear about how to trade. This is not a political post.
TL;DR: Some companies are buying into China’s inflated GDP reports and giving reacharounds. I don’t think it’s going to pay off.
Disclaimer: This content does not necessarily represent the views of IWB.