Deceleration most everywhere:
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October from -0.45 in September and below market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, as all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators contributed the most to decline followed by employment.
In contraction as rig counts continue to decline:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -1.3 in November 2019 from -5.1 in the previous month, above market consensus of -11.3. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016 (-2.4 vs 4.5 in October). Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative in November: new orders (-3.0 vs -4.2); growth rate of orders (-9.3 vs -5.9); capacity utilization (-5.3 vs 3.6); and shipments (-4.5 vs 6.0). The company outlook index fell 10.9 points to -2.1; while the index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks moved up 5.0 points to 17.1. Labor market measures suggested employment levels were unchanged. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in November.
Turned down with tariffs: