Deceleration most everywhere…

by WARREN MOSLER

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Deceleration most everywhere:

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Unexpectedly

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.71 in October from -0.45 in September and below market forecasts of -0.43. That was the lowest reading since April, asĀ all four categories made negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators contributed the most to decline followed by employment.


In contraction as rig counts continue to decline:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallasā€™ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -1.3 in November 2019 from -5.1 in the previous month, above market consensus of -11.3.Ā The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016 (-2.4 vs 4.5 in October). Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative inĀ November: new orders (-3.0 vs -4.2); growth rate of orders (-9.3 vs -5.9); capacity utilization (-5.3 vs 3.6); and shipments (-4.5 vs 6.0). The company outlook index fell 10.9 points to -2.1; while the index measuring uncertainty regarding companiesā€™ outlooks moved up 5.0 points to 17.1. Labor market measures suggested employment levels were unchanged. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in November.


Ominous:


Turned down with tariffs:

 

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