Everyone knows about Disney’s streaming service coming out in November (Disney+). And according to this article:
Investors are pricing in a 6-8 million subscriber base by the end of the year and a 10 million number would be huge for the stock. But I think investors are severely underestimating Disney+ for several reasons.
1). Consumers are educated on streaming. Netflix has grown to a base of roughly 140 million. Of course, it will take Disney time to grow to a similar number but the one thing lost is that Netflix has trained consumers on streaming services. Disney+ is not going to have to battle the apprehension of consumers like Netflix did at the start. This means people are more likely to jump on and try Disney+ from the start and they are more likely to be aware of the launch because they are familar with Netflix.
2). Price point. The relatively low price coupled with the content (more on it below) makes the subscription an extreme value. And if you want to get the Hulu, ESPN+ bundle the value proposition is even higher. This also makes consumers more likely to at least try the service because of the low barrier to entry. Everyone already owns a streaming device.
3). Content. This is the most important thing that separates Disney+ from Netflix, AppleTV+, and any other would be competitor. The Disney, Marvel, and Star Wars fan bases are rabid. Anyone by itself would be a stream seller but Disney+ gives you all three. And they are all international sellers. Netflix had to put a lot of effort into was growing internationally. Disney+ already has that in.
I’m betting Disney+ has 10 million subscribers in the first 2 weeks. And over 20 million by the end of the year.
The obvious play is calls at (pick your price) in the time frame of the Q1 earnings call early next year. But there is a ton of potential ways to make a shit load of money on this.
TL/DR: Investors are severely underestimating Disney+ and if you go full retard you can get tendies.
Disclaimer: Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.