by BoatSurfer600
https://twitter.com/N013Q/status/1555168582345973765
Dip buyers going batshit crazy with call options. So much greed so much fomo pic.twitter.com/IlpXWSWOwI
— Sauxy (@SPXplunger) August 4, 2022
totally normal behavior https://t.co/zQBFKHuyHY
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) August 5, 2022
Cycle timing: In the '01 and '08 cycles, the real #recession (rising #unemployment) did not start till after the Fed had broken something and stopped hiking. Its at this time we see the ISM services really deteriorate. But in past thats been 19-36 mths after hikes started. 2/5
— Andy West (@HedgeQuartersHQ) August 4, 2022
Delays: the 19-36mths delay from hikes to unemployment might be different this time. By Dec we will already have hiked as much as a normal 2-3yr hike cycle in only 10 mths. That compresses this cycle and points to Q1 23 as the employment crunch. What of equities? 4/5
— Andy West (@HedgeQuartersHQ) August 4, 2022
Hard to see the Fed less hawkish as aggregate labor income continues to climb at 9% (jobs * hours * wages). There are distributional issues for sure, but if large portions of the economy have more money they can afford to pay higher prices. Fed hikes to 4%+ and stays there, imv. pic.twitter.com/aK6yFAvAjA
— Ira Jersey, US Fixed Income (@IraFJersey) August 5, 2022
Probability that we see 125bps of tightening by November spiked after that jobs report! pic.twitter.com/4FTtB5Ac7c
— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) August 5, 2022
In 2008, after Bear Stearns, we bounced into May and came within a few % of the highs. At that lower high, the relief was palpable, and I remember PMs telling me that BSC was the sacrificial lamb because they hadn’t played ball back in 1998 and didn’t bail out LTCM…
2/— Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) August 4, 2022
When do the large lenders start going bankrupt? https://t.co/7x5v7Yer5L
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 4, 2022
$spx today vs 2008 👇👇 pic.twitter.com/bBMcYP9xtk
— Álvaro Oviedo (@alvoviedo) August 4, 2022
Shot. Chaser. pic.twitter.com/RiNA0do2VB
— Michael Goodwell (@MichaelGoodwell) August 4, 2022
Someone call the doctor! pic.twitter.com/xV4NyeB4Nn
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 4, 2022
This is not oil, a meme stock or even a scam. It’s the average new home price in America pic.twitter.com/Hn6JvlECLR
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 3, 2022
this market is wild pic.twitter.com/arsEQw0f8Q
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) August 5, 2022
Opposed to 2020 when both the VIX and market volumes skyrocketed. Individual investors have largely stayed the course and remained over-invested in stocks going into recession.
