by Mohammed Mast
Well you are getting your wish. Lockdowns are ending.
Yes the projected death rate was probably overestimated, yet it was a great bit worse than the flu, so far. I don’t think we will know the true numbers for quite some time. There is likely to be at least one more wave and there is no telling if and when it will ever be gone or an effective vaccine becomes available. I think you and many others focus entirely on death rates and ignore the damage SC2 can cause to major organs which may be permanent. Flu “season” generally runs 8 months.We are 4 months into this pandemic. We have a long way to go.
You use a great deal of emotionally charged language which is fine if backed up by facts. Some of the statements you make are not verifiable. Such as “there is a political motive behind the lockdown”. One might say as Rahm Emannuel said “never let a good crisis go to waste” but to state that the governors are using this for political motives is a stretch and I would need to hear what those motives are. The statement “most politicians never had a proper job” is pure hyperbole. I have no idea what a “proper job” is. I also have not idea if that statement has any validity at all. You also say politicians have no idea about how this is affecting people and how there is a huge loss of revenue. Again hyperbole and in my view not true. They are quite well aware of loss of revenue which is why they are opening up. State and local governments are losing vast amounts of tax revenue. www.marketplace.org/2020/04/14/local-governments-lose-tax-revenue-covid19/
If you google tax revenue lost to Covid 19 you will come up with 164,000,000 entries.
I don’t think you can blame all of this on the governments. We are dealing with something we have not dealt with in over 100 years. Was/is it being mismanaged? Yes in some ways and in some places. People like to point to Sweden but the numbers in Sweden are not very good. Sweden is sacrificing its elderly and immigrant populations and still the economy is not doing great. My leading indicator for the global economy is the BDI. It is near its lowest point in 5 years and shows little sign of going up.
Some businesses and jobs are going away and that is a tragedy. My wife shut her business down 2 months ago. She had to because of the lockdown but though she is able to now she isn’t. We take this very seriously which brings me to the last thing you said. “The sooner the government gets out of the way and allows us to make up our own minds about how to handle the situation, the better.”
I have posted far too many times here on this and maybe some have missed it and some are tired of hearing it. Disclaimer; I am no fan of any government. That said the average IQ of Amerikaans is 98. That is not very high and is even more worrisome when you consider half of those are less than that. US high schools GRADUATE in any given year up to 25% of its students who are functionally illiterate. Critical thinking has been largely replaced by mythological, magical thinking. People are out on the streets ranting about a constitution they probably never read. Shopkeepers are being threatened and assaulted for requiring customers to wear a mask. (The Czech Republic lowered its R0 to .8 by requiring everyone to wear a mask in public). I posted a video of a Costco shopper who refused to wear a mask and had his cart taken away and asked to leave the store.
You offer no quidelines for how to reopen. This is a pretty glaring omission. Chris posted a video of a company in China which has been open since Feb. In the video the supervisor outlines the procedures they are required to go through to be in operation. They are rational and effective. I truly wish, you have no idea how I wish. that average Amerikaans would be able to enact and adhere to similar protocols. I am betting the farm that is not possible. The following article touches on some of the problems. www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-united-states-vulnerable-pandemic/608686/.
There are no easy solutions. But as a member here since 2008 I am sure you are well prepared and resilient. I am sure you knew a Black Swan event was coming. Yes we will all rub elbows with SC2. I for one would like to see everyone do the thoughtful, rational compassionate, charitable things to keep others safe. Being a realist I understand that is unlikely to happen.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.