The Fed pivot bailout fantasy is sadly buffoonish.
In every Fed bailout since 2008 the CPI had been falling for 6 months and was at or below 2%.
EXCEPT in the pandemic when markets were limit down six times in two weeks.
Because THAT is what it takes for a bailout. pic.twitter.com/a7rHFvr3rq
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 29, 2022
It’s sad. All CNBC talks about is the Fed pivot. Not one minute has been spent on PCE hitting a 40 year high.
The PCE is the most important inflation number to the Fed.
If anything, the case for the Fed to pivot got weaker today.
It’s truly irresponsible reporting by CNBC
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 29, 2022
Got recession? pic.twitter.com/tiZUdKBfNk
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 29, 2022
S&P 500 2023 EPS expectations falling off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/5rgLtWGo0V
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) July 29, 2022
🇺🇸 U.S. savings rate declined to 5.1% in June from 5.5% in May, the lowest level since August 2009. pic.twitter.com/jXCRguQe5B
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) July 29, 2022
Recap this week
-GDP negative again
-Earnings are garbage
-Feds raised 75 BPS again
-PCE inflation highest in 40 years$SPY up 4%, minds are blown left and right🤣— Tom (@TradingThomas3) July 29, 2022
Over the last month:
– Equity markets have rallied 8-10%
– Bond markets have rallied 5-7%
– HY Credit Spreads tightened 100 bps
– 30y mortgage rates down 60+ bpsIf you are a Central Banker whose only mission now is to fight inflation, you can't like what you see.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) July 29, 2022
The "bad news is good news" is just a psychological narrative. Earnings have been better than expected but the "bad news" is that negative surprises are rising while positive surprises are falling. The rally is a bear market bounce @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @kaileyleinz pic.twitter.com/fdchjrx88o
— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) July 29, 2022
fun stuff pic.twitter.com/CtiI6E8ulP
— Mayank Seksaria (@MayankSeksaria) July 29, 2022
Money markets now yield more than the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/Sjf6VhWjs6
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 29, 2022
Nasdaq pumps and liquidity gets drained pic.twitter.com/F0OiNKeN4J
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) July 29, 2022
37% of consumers expect more layoffs in the coming 6 months, the trend is increasing
Max pain pic.twitter.com/rDxcYTM4jl
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) July 29, 2022
Ignorance at the extreme on fintwitter: “recession fears don’t matter”
Actually they do, defensive stocks as mentioned before, are outperforming the market! Flows rotate toward prime necessities stocks as they can provide yield during an economic slowdown pic.twitter.com/IXkR7y1YDG
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) July 28, 2022
Procter & Gamble Warns That American Consumers Are Starting to Crack Under Inflation
Procter & Gamble warned on July 29 that consumers are beginning to buckle under the weight of inflation, …
U.S. Facing ‘Perfect Storm’ for 2008-Like Housing Crisis: Economist
The U.S. is facing a “perfect storm” for a housing crisis similar to that of 2008, according to Jose Torres, a senior economist for Interactive Brokers.
“If The Fed Marches On, They’re Creating Another Lehman Situation”, Larry McDonald Warns Powell Is “Pumping A False Narrative”
Larry McDonald thinks Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will soon be forced into another pivot because the financial system is under severe stress. «Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators globally are the highest since the financial crisis, a lot of these risk metrics blew through Covid levels,» says the macro strategist and former senior trader at Lehman Brothers.
Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Plunges To 2-Year Lows: That Has a Very Stagflationary Stench to It.
Against expectations of a modest decline, the Chicago PMI for July tumbled from 56.0 to 52.1 (well below the 55.0 expected) – the worst in 2 years…