Equities have major headwinds now. Both boomers who are worried about the economy will be cashing out now as well as companies who were the biggest buyers will now be sellers again to raise cash.
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
Cycles Matter. t.co/vZZjhhuQ0r
— Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) April 25, 2020
Dollar shortage warning.
New lows for EM currencies with $BRL being decimated.
Blood in the streets?
Not even close.Wall Street still estimates a 20+% appreciation in $BRL and further rate cuts by end of 2021.
Good luck with that. pic.twitter.com/qrKJAJQ7OM
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 24, 2020
Fed has 30% of the economy on its balance sheet and the federal government has 120% of gdp in debt and 1,000% in unfunded liabilities. If you destroy your currency trying to avoid 1930’s you’ll eventually wind up back in the 1330’s. That won’t be this guys problem he’ll be dead t.co/Kf6hpEOcrM
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
When China drops its peg lower everything that US companies sell in China becomes instantly more expensive. China is suppose to be the growth story for the globe. iPhones and Chevy Tahoe’s and the rest of it will be 20% more expensive. Avg middle class income less than half US
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
Confirming the prediction that the global trade contraction is going to be worse than in 2008, the outlook for German exports is looking truly horrible. @IHSMarkitPMI via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/9it9rpdN9c
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) April 25, 2020
covid means globalization is done China will be further starved of usd and it will have to drop its peg. chart is a monster. stocks will not survive $usdcnh pic.twitter.com/z1PdKQa4Ls
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
101.50 dxy is point of no return. Above that I view global economy in risk off mode and cash is seeking safe haven not in bonds or stocks but usd. Thats the ultimate source of demand for the dollar imo not EM dollar debt. Problem is soaring dollar has a feedback loop
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
High yield bonds continue to sell off. The stock market ignored it all last week, which was surprising to me. Investors want to ignore insolvency in favor of unmitigated uninterrupted unending central bank bailouts now and forever.
— hks55 (@hks55) April 25, 2020
— Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage) April 25, 2020
Very nice thread! Completely agree with him.. this is a debt deflation = bullish for the dollar t.co/kf1E09icbH
— A.Urban (@AlessioUrban) April 25, 2020