EU, BoE, Energy And The Dollar

by Luke Moffat

The European Union is made up of various institutions and bodies – see here (europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/institutions-bodies_en). And it’s all written down in the EU’s own words. I honestly don’t understand why you think it’s a big mystery. Leaving the EU, as stated on the ballot paper, means leaving its institutions. It’s really that simple.

Anywho, moving on, turns out Mr. Carney of Bank of England fame is a fan of the deal:- (www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/20/mark-carney-backs-there…)

My guess is he’s in favour of anything that prevents him from having to raise interest rates ever again. It’ll have to happen eventually to defend the pound from collapsing given Britain’s deteriorating economy and the dollar strength that’ll slay all before it. Brent Johnson gives a really incisive (and accessible) presentation on the coming dollar rally:

Back to the UK, I feel, given what’s coming our way, that we’ll see a rise in nationalism as a coping mechanism (perhaps some of ‘Brexit’ was precisely that) – “if I can’t derive happiness from consumption I’ll derive it from identity”. I also think it’s something that the other side of the vote doesn’t understand and so it gets labelled as something else (usually something derogatory).

In short, the UK appears in energy transition (depression) mode. Our energy consumption per capita has been in decline since 2005. I don’t think this can be attributed to efficiency breakthroughs in energy utilisation as the ERoI of our primary energy sources (oil and gas) is in steady decline. See below (last chart is from Charles Hall so I can’t take the credit for that one) and the data I used comes from BP;

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Energy transitions, historically speaking, have political consequences. And I really don’t think it’ll be different this time. Thinking out loud here but given that those who wished to remain in the EU don’t object to the EU’s technocratic structure, would they object if the UK developed its own technocratic political system? Also, if efficiency can help preserve prosperity would those who voted for “Brexit” object to a “Made in the UK” version of Brussels?

Cheers,

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