Profits forecasts are falling and the market is only sustained by an expansion of the P/E and not by fundamentals.
We are talking about a 30% expansion here. So everyone is basically all in on the Fed pivot and loser financial conditions. pic.twitter.com/wJJJezPsw5
— THE MARKET DOG (@TheMarketDog) August 4, 2022
For those just joining us, I mapped this clusterfuck against the 1929 pattern:
The next phase should bring global RISK OFF/meltdown, followed by a neutral Fed. Then a decent bounce followed by failed retest, Fed panic and Japanification of the bond market. pic.twitter.com/TvehvbSwyR
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 4, 2022
interesting map by sentiment trader
extreme optimism = red pic.twitter.com/HTCap7rlAW
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) August 4, 2022
While they remain very low, there has been a broad uptick in loan delinquencies across the board in the last quarter.
2007 repeat or just a blip?
Worth monitoring these data from the NY Fed. pic.twitter.com/ALZUTJWwut
— Alf (@MacroAlf) August 3, 2022
given the fact that many use credit card to spend on holiday and interest rates are rising in the middle of a stagflation.. it will be funny this fall pic.twitter.com/wWLzUpLv7H
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) August 4, 2022
US real economy pic.twitter.com/6PDMR8Vtjv
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) August 4, 2022
US consumer sentiment hit the lowest level ever seen
unemployment rate vs consumer sentiment pic.twitter.com/3XIwoVmu7g
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) August 3, 2022
US #PMI #ISM should have been worse, but detail looks consistent with other surveys….#recession pic.twitter.com/9yStuvgg7x
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) August 3, 2022
To add fuel to this profits fire… our estimates from implied margins @MikaelSarwe t.co/cZh6HaafxL … pic.twitter.com/ySPr2PzstM
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) August 3, 2022
-Bank of England raises rates by most since 1995, warns of long recession
-All policy makers (8 of 9) except for Tenreyro backed half-point move
-Officials now reckon inflation may peak at 13.3% in October (raised forecast due to gas)
-Officials expect economy to shrink by 2.1% pic.twitter.com/FtdEGSl2Jw— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) August 4, 2022
Very quietly, #recession probabilities are sneaking higher.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA pic.twitter.com/uDGstJ5tEV— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 4, 2022
The U.S. labor market may be starting to sputter.
Job openings are down. Unemployment claims are up. And private-sector data shows employees working and hours worked both fell in July, while the share of workers reporting lost pay rose. New from me: t.co/Al7oVRDf0p
— Megan Cassella (@mmcassella) August 3, 2022
I smell a recession. pic.twitter.com/xPDjkEhQU4
— Jim Lewis 💰⚒💰 (@Galactic_Trader) August 4, 2022
bear porn
huge if true pic.twitter.com/GrMAYOIjfs
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) August 3, 2022
30-Year Fixed Largest Weekly Decline Since ’20
Services Sector Shrinks Again
The Fed Disagrees, but Main Street Says ‘The Recession Is Already Here’
Confidence hits all-time low in CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, as weak sales outlook and inflation worry a Main Street that says recession is here.
Initial Jobless Claims Hit 8 Month Highs, Continuing Claims Jump Ahead Of Payrolls Print
Amid a growing wave of corporate layoff announcements, the number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits rose to 260k last week (moving its 4-week average to the highest in 8 months). More problematically, continuing claims is now starting to roll notably higher at 1.416mm – the highest since April.
America’s Biggest Warehouse Is Running Out of Room. It’s About To Get Worse
America’s largest warehouse market is full as major U.S. retailers warn of slowing sales of the clothing, electronics, furniture and other goods that have packed the distribution centers east of Los Angeles.
🇺🇸 #Recession | *US 2-to-10 Year curve inversion reaches mark last seen in September 2000 – Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/FoY6wv4IT2
— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) August 4, 2022