The risk is a series of bear-market rallies that don’t last, hurting dip buyers and further damaging investor confidence
With the S&P 500 briefly on Friday down 20% from its January peak, it is very tempting to start trying to call the end of the selloff. The problem is that only one of the conditions for a rally is in place, that everyone’s scared. That worked beautifully for timing the start of the 2020 rebound, but this time around may not be enough.
The other requirements are that investors start to see a way through the challenges, and that policy makers start to help. Without those, the risk is a series of bear-market rallies that don’t last, hurting dip buyers and further damaging investor confidence.
This time central bankers are scared not by falling markets or the economic outlook, but by inflation. Sure, if something major breaks in the financial system, they will refocus on finance, and a recession may prompt them to rethink rate rises. But for now, inflation means that falling stock prices are seen merely as a side effect of tighter monetary policy, not a reason to invoke the “Fed put” and rescue investors.
- TERMINATORS: Killer robots join Ukraine’s line of defense against Russian troops
- Left calls for war in all rural areas says cops cant do nothing
- Whoa! More negative wealth effects coming down the pipe…big recession ahead
- WTF, Who Is Running Our Country?
- Percent change in home sales in total (YoY) and percent change in sales by home price level
- Fed throws Biden under the bus, says hes collapsing the country
- The Biggest Temper Tantrum In U.S. History Has Begun
- The collapse in consumer sentiment is definitive proof that social mood is rolling over. Hard. So far, the declines in stocks have been bought ALL the way down. Each rally has been shorter than the last.
- New Data Shows Massive Drop in Birth Rates After Covid 19 Vax Campaign
- Congressman Jim Jordan gets Debbie Birx to admit the truth…