Expect Covid-19 to Return in the Fall in a Big Way

via mishtalk

A look at what’s happening in the Southern Hemisphere suggests something that no one wants to hear.
Covid-19 on a Southern Hemisphere Rampage

An Email exchange with Jim Bianco and Erik Townsend reveals a Covid-19 pattern that many of us expected but no one wanted.

Bianco reports “The virus is exploding in the southern hemisphere … Central/South America, Africa, around India and around Iran.”

“Here is my thinking/idea: The virus is no where near disappearing. Instead it has moved to the southern hemisphere (winter) and out of the northern hemisphere (summer). If so, we are enjoying a summer respite before a second way this coming winter.”

Reported Infections – The World Excluding the US

Reported Infections World Excluding the US

Bianco emailed charts of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa, Keyna, India, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and other countries.

I put those countries on a single chart, above. Data is from Our World in Data, with credit to Bianco for the idea.

Thanks Jim!


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Yes, we have a collective “Phew” but the chart shows that is not even justified.

The US has flattened the curve and no more.

The recent riots may easily un-flatten the curve just as things were, at least for a while, starting to look better, even as some states are looking worse.

US Covid-19 Cases 2020-06-04

US Covid-19 Cases 2020-06-04

New US Epicenters

  • Illinois
  • California
  • Texas
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Virgina

While people breathe a sigh of relief about recent declines in New York and New Jersey, huge problems erupted in Illinois, California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia despite warmer weather.

Seven days of mass rioting without masks are sure to exacerbate these worsening trends.

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