Heading into the July 31 FOMC meeting, there was a substantial 22% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Odds of a 50 basis point cut hit 50% at one point.
That speculation ended, for now, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell labeled the rate cut a “Mid-Cycle” Adjustment
In response, the yield curve inverted more, then more still on poor economic data.
Rate Hike Odds For December
Curiously, traders believe odds of a double cut and no cut are about equally likely.
One side is very wrong most likely, it’s those who believe no more cuts.
Eventually the Fed will panic, and I suspect by the end of the year.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock