EXTREMELY short DD on $SPY and rate hikes

by Successful-Twist

I’ll only include the TLDR in my analysis;

The boomers are just trying to postpone the problems to the next generations, but now they failed miserably.

QT: What if on Wednesday Powell announces a 75bp hike, or heck what if he announces a 200bp hike which is very unlikely, it’s still not enough relative to the nominal inflation. In addition, what if he increases the pace of QT? All of this is negative and market will continue to correct.

QE: Alternatively, what if he announces that QE will be picked up again and the rate hikes will be paused. Result is even more inflation, hyperinflation and total destruction of the USD as a reserve currency.

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My point is; FED is trapped, both hawkish and dovish moves will eventually lead to either a recession, or hyperinflation. Either way we’re f!#!ed.

I have no positions at the moment, 100% cash. Thinking of buying put options at market open.. The whole economy is wrecked.

– stock market is a bubble – China bank runs – Shanghai in a lockdown again
– ATH corporate profits
– ATH private and public debts
– YUUGE wealth gap between rich and poor
– Housing market is in a YUUGE bubble
– C*y**market seems to have some systemic stability issues which could spill over to the real economy
– Putin doesn’t seem to stop with this war, looks like it’ll be a long term encounter. Taiwan also on the verge of declaring independence a.k.a. war with China.
– MBS prints no bids
…. and the list goes on

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.


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